Why nobody can guarantee you Google Ads results

"Guaranteed leads." "Guaranteed first page." "Results or your money back."

It's tempting, especially if you've been let down before. You want certainty.

Here's the only real guarantee in Google Ads: Google will spend your budget. Everything after that is up for grabs.

I don't offer guarantees. Here's why, and what I offer instead.

Nobody knows who's at the other end of the search

When someone types a search into Google, you don't know who they are. You don't know if they're ready to buy, just browsing, comparing prices or a student doing homework.

You're dealing with people. And the 100 people who click your ad this month are not the same 100 people who'll click it next month. Different needs, different budgets, different moods. No one can promise how a group of strangers will behave.

Plenty of it is outside anyone's control

Competitors raising their bids. Google changing how its auctions work. A quiet month in your industry. A rival opening down the road. The weather, for some trades.

If anyone really could guarantee results, they wouldn't be managing ad accounts. They'd be selling the formula.

Watch what's actually being guaranteed

Read the small print on a guarantee and it's often about clicks, impressions or "leads" that include anything at all. Easy numbers to hit. Not the same as customers.

It takes two

I'd happily guarantee you leads, as long as you can guarantee me a few things back. That you'll outbid every competitor in your area. That every call gets answered and every enquiry gets a quick reply. That you'll never have a quiet month.

You can't promise those either, and that's the point. Results depend on both sides. That's why, on a pilot campaign, I ask you for two things: answer calls quickly, and tell me how every lead went.

If you're asking for a guarantee, I get it

Usually it means you've been burned before. An agency that took the money and went quiet, or someone who promised the world and delivered a report full of clicks. That's a fair reason to be wary.

A guarantee just isn't the fix. Honesty, ownership and a sensible plan are.

What I can promise

• You deal with me, not a junior account manager.
• Tracking you can trust, checked and fixed before anything else.
• Decisions based on data, not hunches or whatever Google suggests.
• A sensible approach. Test first, see what works, then put more money behind it. Not pour money in and hope.
• Honesty, including when something isn't working, or when the numbers don't add up for your business.
• Your account and your data stay yours.
• No long lock-in. After the first three months, management is rolling monthly.

I don't have all the answers, and I won't pretend to. But I'll work from the data, because that's what we've got, and I'll tell you straight what it says.